October 3, 2007
Sorry again for the delay. I had a few issues with Dreamweaver (or rather, Dreamweaver had a few issues with me) and have now switched to true 'blog' form via Yahoo!'s basic blog software. Here we go.....
It's been a busy past month+. Capitulation was indeed Thursday, August 16 ~1pm EDT. Since then, the market has been mostly up, helped in no small part to the Fed Reserve cutting the discount rate to 4.75% (50 bp cut). Economy is strong, earnings are strong, just finally had a housing/credit correction. Nothing more. Life goes on. If you're not fully invested, hurry up. My accounts are back where they were pre-correction, and quite healthy. The future looks bright.
But what about housing? What about no more easy credit? Won't that kill the economy? No. Homeowners who don't have to sell will sit tight and keep living/spending/decorating/eating/playing/etc. Homeowners who have to sell will bite the bullet or wait a long time at a high asking price. People will still shop at Lowes and Home Depot to get projects done. Again, life goes on. Due to the market correction of July/August, 2007, the credit problems are priced.
But what about the weak dollar? The Euro is strong. The Pound is strong. The Canadian Dollar is strong. Won't the weak U.S. Dollar bring gloom and doom? Um, no. Listen closely, as a weak dollar means two things. First, a higher global demand for U.S. products, increasing orders, revenue and profits for U.S. companies. Second, it's more expensive to travel overseas for U.S. citizens, so stay home and go see Mount Rushmore.
In September, I transferred my 401k to my online brokerage and purchased shares in the following: NZT, MEOH, TKR, GR and PRE. I like all five whole-heartedly, and see them as long-term holdings. I also remember the price of freedom is eternal vigilence, so I'll keep an eye on things.....
Things are going well in the joint account. Two things I learned during the most recent correction. First, options have to be sold at some point in time, so in the future if I have ridiculous returns on the options (150%+) I will take some profit off the table no matter what. Second, it's nice to have some cash for purchasing equities and call options during a correction fire sale. In August, AAPL dipped below $120, LF below $7, PRE below $70, SPY near $137. All purchases would have made $$$ in a short time.
AAPL is still a buy, even today near $160. Future looks bright, both domestically and globally. I see AAPL fairly valued close to $210.
LF is a speculative play, through and through. I believe their management team is in the midst of a great turnaround. They make great educational products and had plenty of bad news priced. If Christmas 2007 and into 2008 is what I think it might be, the stock will be over $20 next year.
GR is becoming popular by the mainstream. GR has been an call option play for a long time, and I've made money each time. My latest calls expire in October and November, and they're deep in the money.
PRE is going to benefit tremendously from three things: slow hurricane season, crazy low valuation and no subprime exposure/credit issues. PRE, even near $80, should be closer to $100 by the end of 2007.
RL is interesting. RL didn't have that crazy high valuation, but was hit hard, from near $100 to the $70s in a short time. I'm still positive on RL, and think anything less than $90 is a great buy right now. After the next earnings, it could easily go back north of $100 quickly.
Finally, remember CHTT? I bought them after using their Bullfrog Sunscreen Mist (awesome for beach, kids, etc.) and doing research. Actually, I bought December 60 calls, when CHTT was in the mid-$50s. They sky is the limit, and CHTT is still a solid buy in the $70s. Fair value for CHTT? My guess is $110.
The economy is strong, inflation is missing in the U.S., international business is increasing, and rates are low. Stay invested.